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Births in the UK This Year

The UK total fertility rate (TFR) stands at approximately 1.49 children per woman — the lowest ever recorded in the UK and significantly below the replacement rate of 2.1 required to maintain population size without net immigration. The TFR measures the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime if current age-specific fertility rates continued.

The UK fertility rate has been declining since a post-recession peak of approximately 1.92 in 2012. The fall has been particularly pronounced among women in their 20s, who are increasingly delaying childbearing. Fertility rates among women aged 40 and over have increased as more women who delayed having children in their 20s and 30s start families later.

The UK fertility rate compares to a European average of approximately 1.5, with Southern European countries including Spain (1.19), Italy (1.20) and Greece (1.35) having even lower rates. The United States has a TFR of approximately 1.62, also below replacement. No developed country currently has a TFR above the replacement rate of 2.1.

The fertility rate has significant long-term implications for the UK's age structure, public finances and economic growth. Lower fertility leads to an ageing population — a higher proportion of elderly people relative to working-age people — increasing pressure on pensions, health services and social care. The OBR's long-term projections assume continued net immigration to offset the demographic impact of below-replacement fertility.

Policy responses to declining fertility in other countries have had mixed results. Hungary has introduced significant financial incentives for larger families, with some effect on birth rates. Nordic countries with strong family support systems (generous parental leave, subsidised childcare) have higher fertility rates than Southern European countries, suggesting policy environment matters. The UK's fertility rate is expected to remain below replacement rate for the foreseeable future.

Source: ONS Birth Statistics / National Records of Scotland · Data year: 2023/24 · All figures are statistical estimates calculated from official annual publications

What is the UK fertility rate in 2026?

The UK total fertility rate (TFR) stands at approximately 1.49 children per woman — the lowest ever recorded in UK history. This is significantly below the replacement rate of 2.1 needed to maintain population size without immigration. The rate has fallen from a post-recession peak of approximately 1.92 in 2012.

What does replacement rate mean?

The replacement rate is the total fertility rate required to maintain population size without net immigration — generally accepted as 2.1 children per woman. The figure is slightly above 2.0 because some children die before reaching reproductive age. No developed country currently meets the replacement rate. The UK's TFR of 1.49 means the population would decline without net migration.

How does the UK fertility rate compare to other countries?

The UK TFR of approximately 1.49 is close to the European average of approximately 1.5. Southern European countries have lower rates — Spain 1.19, Italy 1.20, Greece 1.35. The United States has a TFR of approximately 1.62. Nordic countries with strong family support policies tend to have higher rates within Europe — Sweden 1.66, France 1.79. No developed country has a TFR above the replacement rate of 2.1.